Indexes Close Mixed On Higher Volume

May 16th, 2008

Indexes faltered to a mixed close Wednesday as slipping crude oil prices and a possibly final interest-rate cut failed to buttress buyers.

The NYSE composite closed 0.2% higher, based on early figures, led by energy stocks.

But the Nasdaq notched a 0.6% loss. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% while the Dow ended down a fraction.

Preliminary figures showed volume rose across the board, marking the Nasdaq’s second distribution day in recent weeks. It was also a distribution day for the S&P 500. The Dow’s loss was too small to be considered institutional selling.

The Nasdaq slipped despite a 3% jump by Google () as other tech stocks tumbled.

Research In Motion () took a pounding, losing 4.66 to 121.63. The smartphone maker appears to be adding another handle to its base.

On the upside, communications chipmaker NetLogic Microsystems () gapped up for a 3.93 gain to 32.79. The company handily topped Q1 consensus. The 14% jump left shares just below a possible buy point at 33.

On the foreign front, Brazil’s Bovespa index rose to a record high, blasting ahead 6.3% after Standard & Poor’s announced it was raising the country’s foreign bond rating. The move gives Brazil’s bonds investment-grade ratings, on par with India, Morocco and Romania, and may help attract additional foreign capital.

Brazilian home builder Gafisa ()jumped 5.89 to 43.55. Companhia Brasileira () added 3.94 to 45.49. Unibanco Holding () spiked up 15.28 to 145.41. Banco Itau Holding () gained 2.28 to 28.05. Banco Bradesco () rose 1.58 to 22.58.

3:15 p.m. Update: Stocks Retreat After Fed Announcement

By VINCENT MAO

The major stock indexes hovered near session highs in late trade Wednesday. Equities extended gains just after the Fed gave the market another rate cut, but they’ve pulled back some.

At 2:51 p.m. EDT, the Dow and Nasdaq were up 1% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% and Nasdaq 0.5%.

Volume was tracking higher on both exchanges.

Techne () climbed 2.43 to a near eight-year high of 74.22 in heavy trading. The biotech is following through after clearing a 71.52 buy point from a base-on-base pattern Tuesday.

Cummins () powered up 4.75 to 62.24 in heavy trade. Earlier today, the engine maker topped views with a 37% jump in Q1 earnings. That was its best performance in several quarters. Cummins is building a potential cup base.

On the downside, Cash America International () dropped 4.25 to 40.90 in busy trading. But it bounced from a session low of 38.30. Jefferies & Co. cut the pawnshop operator to hold from buy, citing valuation.

2:30 p.m. Update: Fed Cuts Rates As Expected

By ED CARSON

The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 2%, as expected, citing weak U.S. economic activity and “stressed” financial markets. But it also cited rising commodity prices and inflation expectations, making the inflation outlook unclear.

The Fed said it expects sharp rate cuts in recent months would support growth, but stood ready to act as needed.

The vote was 8-2, with the dissenters likely favoring no move. Many analysts expect that this would be the last Fed cut of the latest cycle of rate reductions.

Stocks, which were rallying just ahead of the Fed’s action, moved up and down after the news. At 11:24 a.m., the Dow was up 0.9%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose 0.5%.

1:15 p.m. Update: Indexes Back Off Ahead Of Fed

By VINCENT MAO AND ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Stocks pulled back from session highs by midday Wednesday, ahead of the central bank’s decision on interest rates.

At 12:44 p.m. EDT, the Dow led with a 0.7% gain. A 13% jump in shares of General Motors () on an earnings report boosted the index. The Nasdaq and NYSE composites were up 0.5% each, the S&P 500 0.3%.

The Fed’s interest rate announcement is due at about 2:15 p.m. EDT. A quarter-point cut to 2% is expected.

May crude futures fell an additional $1.88 a barrel, slipping to $113.75. A 3.9-million-barrel increase in weekly inventories was nearly triple the consensus forecast and the 13th increase in the past 16 weeks. Gasoline inventories fell for a seventh straight week.

Crude pegged a record high Monday after the shutdown of some production and a major pipeline outage in the North Sea, along with various production interruptions in Nigeria. Oil dropped nearly 3% on Tuesday after the restart of the North Sea pipeline. It is now 5% off Monday’s high.

CyberSource () climbed 1.99, or 12%, to 18.29 in fast trade. It cleared a 17.66 buy point of a double-bottom base. Volume was tracking more than three times average. It’s in buying range until 18.54. After Tuesday’s close, the provider of online payment services posted a Q1 profit, excluding items, of 16 cents per share. That was 2 cents above views and double year-ago levels. Revenue surged 141% to $53.4 million, also above views.

NetLogic Microsystems () gapped up and rallied 3.40, or 12%, to 32.26. Late Tuesday, the chipmaker reported a 58% jump in first-quarter profit and a 46% rise in revenue. Both were ahead of views. The stock’s Accumulation/Distribution Rating has improved to B from a worst-possible E last month.

Open Text () gapped up and gained 1.67 to 35.65 in fast trade. This morning, the business software maker won two upgrades after posting better-than-expected earnings and sales late Tuesday. Research Capital upgraded the business software firm to buy from accumulate. And GMP Securities lifted shares to buy from hold. Both brokers raised their price targets on the stock.

On the downside, Bois d’Arc () gapped down and tumbled 1.95, or 8%, to 24.03 in huge trade. The oil and gas producer dropped despite news that it would be acquired by Stone Energy () in a deal valued at $1.8 billion. Stone shares tumbled 9%.

11:15 a.m. Update: Indexes Hold Ground In Mixed Volume

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Indexes clung to highs after an early jump spurred by earnings wins across a broad range of sectors.

The NYSE composite held a 0.7% gain, and the Nasdaq stuck with a 0.6% advance at 10:53 a.m. EDT. International issues led the NYSE’s upside, while biotechs scored solid gains for the Nasdaq. The S&P 500’s 0.4% rise lagged the Dow’s 0.7%. Citigroup () pulled both indexes lower.

Advancing stocks led decliners by better than 3-to-2 on both exchanges. Trading volume was lower on the NYSE, slightly higher on the Nasdaq.

Stocks were deeply mixed across Asia. The Shanghai composite bolted 4.8% as banks and insurers drove higher on solid Q1 earnings reports. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.6% ahead of a holiday Thursday.

In Europe and the U.K., indexes recovered from early losses and had posted moderate gains in late trading.

The April Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index, a broad gauge of manufacturing activity in the Midwest region, came in better than expected. The 48.3 reading was still below the crucial boom-bust 50 mark that would begin to indicate economic expansion. But it was the index’s third monthly gain after slipping to a six-year low in February.

Monolithic Power Systems () amped up for a 1.20 gain to 22.42. The semiconductor chip maker reported Tuesday it neatly topped Q1 views and said it planned to restate some prior tax figures to lower levels. The move broke shares above a 22.03 buy point from a handle in a six-month, double-bottom base. Cummins Diesel () powered ahead 5.38 to 62.87 after plowing over Q1 sales and earnings views.

Private college educator Strayer Education () jumped 16.18 to 196.07 on powerful volume. It, too, topped Q1 EPS views and upped Q2 guidance above consensus. The gap-up move launched the stock above the 196.01 buy point from a five-month cup-shaped base.

10:15 a.m. Stocks Rise On Mixed Volume

By VINCENT MAO

Stocks opened to the upside Wednesday and tacked on more gains ahead of this afternoon’s decision on interest rates.

At 9:54 a.m. EDT, the NYSE composite had gained 0.6% and the Dow 0.5%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each rose 0.4%.

Volume was tracking mixed, with NYSE higher and Nasdaq lower.

First Solar () gapped up and rose 13.37, or 7%, to 298.29. That puts the stock 5% past a 283.10 buy point from a cup base. Before the open, the maker of solar modules said Q1 earnings spiked to 57 cents a share, up from 7 cents a year earlier and a dime above views. Sales nearly tripled to $196.9 million, also above views.

Visa () added 1.10 to a new high of 81.98. On Tuesday, the credit card processor staged a huge reversal. Shares fell more than 6% early in the day but bounced back to close up 7%.

Fellow credit care firm MasterCard () extended Tuesday’s 13% pop, with Wednesday morning shares gaining 4.52 to 278.50. It’s now 25% past a 222.35 buy point.

On the downside, Rofin-Sinar Technologies () gapped down and slumped 8.27, or 18%, to 37.67 on huge trade. Before the open, the maker of laser cutting and welding tools posted fiscal Q2 earnings and sales below analysts’ expectations.

Chicago Bridge & Iron () gapped down and tumbled 6.20, or 13%, to 42.11 in heavy trading. The engineering and construction company reported Q1 profit shy of expectations.

9:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Poised For Higher Open

By VINCENT MAO

Stock futures pointed to a higher open Wednesday on better-than-expected GDP data.

Nasdaq futures climbed 6 points vs. fair value, S&P 500 futures gained 3 points and Dow futures rallied 37 points.

In economic news, the ADP Employment Survey predicted 10,000 new private-sector jobs in April.

The jobs report from the Labor Department will be out on Friday. A decrease of 80,000 jobs, both public and private, is seen.

The advanced reading of the first-quarter gross domestic product said the economy grew 0.6%, slightly above economists’ estimates for a 0.5% rise.

The employment cost index rose 0.7%, slightly below forecasts.

Just shortly after the open, the Chicago PMI index for April will be out. Forecasts call for a dip to 47.5.

The weekly energy inventories report is due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Meanwhile, the Fed’s announcement on interest rates is due at 2:15 p.m. EDT. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates to 2% and then halt their string of cuts.

A couple of Dow components reported earnings.

General Motors () climbed 4% in the pre-market after reporting a smaller-than-expected first-quarter loss. The auto giant lost 62 cents a share, excluding items, down from a profit of 17 cents a share the prior year. Sales fell 2% to $42.7 billion, but that was above analysts’ estimates for $40.1 billion. During the quarter, the company faced a number of challenges, including the weak economy an labor strikes.

Procter & Gamble () climbed 3% in pre-open trading after it beat views. The consumer products supplier reported fiscal Q3 earnings of 82 cents a share, up 11% from a year before and a penny above estimates. Sales hit $20.46 billion, also above estimates. P&G raised the lower end of its full-year guidance to a range of $3.48 to $3.50 a share vs. views for $3.50.

Elsewhere, Citigroup () announced late Tuesday that it’s seeking to raise $3 billion through a stock offering to help boost its capital. A day later the company raised the offering to $4.5 billion. Citi has been hurt by huge write-downs tied to the subprime mortgage crisis. Shares fell 3% in the pre-market.

Garmin also fell 3% in pre-open trading after it delivered Q1 earnings and sales below views. The GPS device maker is trading near two-year lows.

Praise for blaze-busters

May 16th, 2008

FIREFIGHTERS have said a special “thank you” to a group of children who helped stop a wildfire spreading on Arthur’s Seat.

The eight youngsters helped create a firebreak in thick gorse. A few weeks later the break proved vital in stopping the spread of a serious blaze started by a rogue firework on Bonfire Night.

Firefighters spent more than 48 hours trying to extinguish the fire near Hunter’s Bog on Arthur’s Seat, after a firework landed in the dry gorse and set it alight.

A large area of gorse was destroyed and four fire crews had to use an extra-long hose reel to pump water from St Margaret’s Loch in a bid to put the fire out.

The children - aged nine and ten from Niddrie Mill and St Francis Primary Schools - received John Muir Award certificates, as well as gifts of pencil cases and stationery from the fire brigade. Mike Bridgman, convener of Lothian and Borders Fire and Rescue Board, said: “We are delighted to be able to congratulate these young people.

“Through their work with the park rangers on cutting fire breaks in the gorse in Holyrood Park, the fire on November 5 was prevented from spreading and causing damage to a much greater area of land. They should be very proud of themselves and they are an asset to their local community.”

The children were invited to take part in the John Muir Challenge by Lothian and Borders Police, to give them something constructive to do in their spare time. Working with the police and park rangers, they learned about the history and wildlife of Arthur’s Seat.

The firebreak was suggested by park rangers following a fire in the same spot last year, which was also started by a firework.

A police spokeswoman said: “This was something we wanted to organise to help keep these kids off the streets and out of trouble, and it was a big challenge for them just to get the John Muir Award.

“They have spent months working towards this, and they were so proud to have achieved the certificate.

“They saw just how important their work had been. They went back to the site not long after the fire and they were all shocked to see it was still burning.

“The fire brigade told us that without the firebreak this would have been a lot worse, and so we thought it was only fair that they be recognised for their work.”

The presentation ceremony took place at St Francis Primary on Niddrie Mains Road yesterday.

Bond Insurers, Natural Gas Drive Indexes Higher

May 16th, 2008

Stocks climbed sharply Monday after battered bond insurers got a vote of confidence late in the day.

The NYSE composite staged a broad 1.6% climb. The Nasdaq finished up 1.1% with a leg up from biotechs and mortgage stocks.

Small caps and midcaps led, with the S&P 600 and 400 each gaining 2%. The S&P 500 rose 1.4%. The Dow jumped 1.5% as Alcoa () added 2.30 to 38.85 after agreeing to sell its packaging unit to a New Zealand buyer for $2.7 billion.

Trading ran 7% higher on the NYSE and down 8% on the Nasdaq, according to preliminary figures.

MBIA () jumped 2.40 to 14.58. Standard & Poor’s backed a triple-A rating for troubled bond insurers MBIA and Ambac (), and removed MBIA’s rating from Credit Watch, reporting that the company was making progress in raising capital.

The stock remains 79% below its October level. Ambac rose 1.70 to 12.41.

Bullish forecasts on natural gas from a Goldman Sachs analyst and from a Chesapeake Energy () executive sent natural gas-related energy plays soaring.

Southwestern Energy () gushed 5.89 to 67.61 on big volume. Shares are nailing new highs as they go for a sixth straight week of gains.

On the downside, MasterCard () fell 5.03 to 198.45 on heavy trading. Reports said competitor Visa had its sights set on the largest-ever U.S. public offering, aiming for $18.8 billion in proceeds when goes public probably within the next several weeks. MasterCard closed below its 10-week line for the first time since January. It closed in the upper half of its trading range, 13% below its December high.

3:15 p.m. Update: Stocks Extend Gains In Late Trade

By VINCENT MAO

Stocks ramped up in late trading Monday after Standard & Poor’s reaffirmed AAA credit ratings on bond insurers Ambac Financial and MBIA. MBIA jumped 12%, and Ambac rose 5%.

At 2:43 p.m. EST, the Dow had climbed 1.2%, the NYSE composite 1%, S&P 500 0.7% and Nasdaq 0.6%.

NYSE volume was tracking higher, and Nasdaq’s lower.

Energy issues powered up.

Stone Energy Corp. () gained 3.03 to a 52-week high of 49.49. It cleared a 48.63 buy point of an eight-week cup base. The oil and natural gas firm reports earnings on Wednesday. Analysts see profit rising 40% to $1.62 a share.

Group member Forest Oil () climbed 1.34 to 50.84. It may be adding a handle to its cup-shaped base. Forest’s earnings and sales growth accelerated in recent quarters.

On the downside, Strayer Education () dropped 4 points to 154.75. On Thursday, the school operator closed under its 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year.

Its industry group, Commercial Services-Schools, was among the biggest decliners. Group mates Apollo Group () dropped 1.93 to 60.92 and DeVry () fell 0.91 to 43.81. School operators have been under pressure in recent weeks as lenders tightened criteria for obtaining student loans.

1:15 p.m. Update: Stocks Hang Tough In Midday Trading

By VINCENT MAO

The major indexes were all higher in midday trading Monday. They battled back after slipping into mixed territory earlier.

At 12:48 p.m. EST, the Dow and NYSE composite were up 0.3% each. But that was off session highs of 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.2% each.

Volume was tracking a bit higher on the NYSE and slightly lower on the Nasdaq.

Fertilizer and oil-related groups were among the day’s best performers. Financial, consulting and Internet groups took heat.

Southwestern Energy () jumped 3.89 to a new high of 65.62. The oil and gas producer has improved its profit growth in the past two quarters. Analyst expect the trend to continue when Southwestern reports results on Friday. Earnings are slated to climb 80% to 36 cents a share.

Carrizo Oil & Gas () tacked on 1.24 to trade at 55.73. JPMorgan Chase started coverage of the much-smaller energy firm with a neutral rating. The stock is in its ninth week of a cup-shaped base. Its Relative Strength line is already at new highs ahead of price, indicating that it is outperforming the market.

Crude oil futures remained firm, edging up 29 cents to $99.10 a barrel at midday.

Meanwhile, Meridian Bioscience () gapped up and rallied 1.24 to 33.43. The maker of diagnostic test kits is working on a potential base-on-base pattern.

On the downside, Mechel () slumped 4.79 to 122.04 in brisk trade. The Russian mining and steel firm ran as high as 131.32 following a Deutsche Bank upgrade. At that peak, the stock was extended 104% above its 200-day moving average.

Medco Health Solutions () dropped 1.67 to 46.67 and sliced its 50-day moving average. The pharmacy benefits manager’s profit growth slowed to flat growth in the latest quarters.

11:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Climb In Firm Volume

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Investors ignored weak housing data to turn around an early slump and add to Friday’s late-day surge.

Both the NYSE and Nasdaq composites had added 0.7% at 10:52 a.m. EST. Trading volume climbed about 5% on both exchanges. The Nasdaq’s biotech index pulled ahead of the pack with a 2.4% advance. Midcaps and small caps slightly outpaced larger issues. The S&P 400 gained 1%, the small cap S&P 600 added 0.9%. The Dow added 0.8% and the S&P 500 followed with a 0.6% increase.

Stocks across Asia, except in China, moved higher. The Shanghai composite tumbled 4.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged 0.2%. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 blasted ahead 3.1% after Chinese news reports said China’s sovereign wealth fund would buy as much as $10 billion in Japanese stocks. South Korea’s Seoul composite posted a 1.3% gain.

The boards were green in Europe and the U.K.: London’s FTSE 100 gained 1.6% while France’s CAC-40 strode ahead 1.9%.

January existing home sales fell below forecasts, leaving the pace of sales just below December’s 10-year low. The National Association of Realtors showed 4.89 million units sold in January, down from an upwardly revised 4.91 million in December.

Potash Saskatchewan () headed on 3.09 to 160.09 in solid volume. The fertilizer producer broke out of a cup-with-handle base Feb. 12. It has advanced in five straight sessions, and is now 9% above the 147.20 buy point.

Itron () bolted 5.59 to 94.61 in double average volume. The meter-reading technology maker has climbed since posting better-than-expected Q4 sales and earnings Feb. 21. It is now back above its 10-week moving average, but 16% below its Oct. 30 high.

EOG Resources () tacked on 3.53 to 102.88 in solid volume. The move pushed the natural gas producer to new highs and began a sixth-straight week of gains.

10:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Dip In Early Trade

By VINCENT MAO

The major stock indexes headed slightly lower in early trading Monday.

At 9:57 a.m. EST, the NYSE composite and S&P 500 each fell 0.4%. The Nasdaq lost 0.3% and the Dow 0.2%.

Turnover was tracking sharply higher on both exchanges.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold () dropped 1.81 to 97.55 in brisk trading. The stock has found resistance near the 100 level.

Financials were again under pressure after Goldman Sachs cut earnings estimates on Citigroup (), JPMorgan Chase (), Bear Stearns (), Merrill Lynch () and Morgan Stanley (). Goldman expects “major write-downs in leveraged loans” and other subprime-related investments. The financial sector SPDR () fell 0.66 to 26.53.

Western Digital () rose 0.67 to 31.90 as it moved back above a 31.80 buy point of a cup-shaped base. The hard drive maker’s profit growth has accelerated in recent quarters. Analysts expect profit for the current fiscal year to nearly double.

Perfect World () gapped up and gained 1.78, or 7%, to 27.24 in fast trade. The Chinese online gaming firm swung to a Q4 profit of 34 cents a share, beating views. It also regained it 50-day moving average.

9:15 a.m. Update Stocks Head For Lackluster Open

By VINCENT MAO

Stock futures pointed to a mostly flat open Monday, as investors await more news of a potential bailout for troubled bond insurer Ambac Financial.

Nasdaq futures fell 2 points vs. fair value, S&P 500 futures slipped a fraction of a point and Dow futures lost 7 points.

On Friday, stocks turned higher in the final minutes of trading after CNBC reported of a possible rescue plan for Ambac, which faces billions in losses from insuring repackaged subprime mortgages. According to reports, a plan may be announced today or Tuesday. Ambac shares climbed 2% in the pre-market. Group mate MBIA () gained 1% in the pre-market.

In economic news, Fed Governors Randall Kroszner and Frederic Mishkin will give speeches at 9:50 a.m. EST and 3:30 p.m. EST, respectively.

Data on January existing-home sales will be out at 10 a.m. Economists expect a dip to 4.8 million units from 4.89 million units in December.

Genetech () jumped 8% in pre-market trading. On Friday, the Food and Drug Administration granted the biotech accelerated approval for its Avastin breast cancer drug.

Deutsche Bank downgraded General Motors () and auto parts maker BorgWarner () to hold from buy, citing a challenging environment. GM shares lost 2% in pre-open.

Lowe’s Companies () fell 3% in pre-market trading. Amid a slumping housing market, the nation’s second biggest home improvement retailer reported a 33% drop in Q4 profit. It guided Q1 earnings below consensus estimates.

Take-Two Interactive Software () soared 48% in pre-open trading. Over the weekend, the maker of the highly popular “Grand Theft Auto” game series rejected a $1.9 billion offer from rival Electronic Arts (). Electronic Arts fell 2% in the pre-market. Take-Two will release the fourth installment of “Grand Theft Auto” April 29.

Credit card firm Visa might raise close to $19 billion from an initial public offering it, experts say. That would make it the biggest IPO in U.S. history. In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing the company said it would offer 406 million shares at $37 to $42 per share.

April Marks Dollar Turnaround

May 16th, 2008

Earlier this week, the Forex Blog speculated that the tide was turning on the Euro, which had retreated from the $1.60 threshold. Sure enough, the month of April saw the best monthly performance by the Dollar in over two years. The sudden about-face by the Dollar stems from changes in interest rate expectations. Only a couple weeks ago, the consensus among investors was that the Fed would cut rates further at its next meeting; the only point of uncertainty was whether rates would be cut by 25 or 50 basis points.

As of today, however, there is only a 25% chance that the Fed will cut rates at all, if you go by futures prices. Regarding the Euro, investors are no longer so sure that the ECB will hike rates in response to surging inflation. In short, the new consensus is that the US/EU interest rate differential has stabilized. Then there is the economic picture; investors have “chosen” to be pleasantly surprised by the most recent economic data. While the economic downturn still seems inevitable, it may not be as severe as investors had previously feared. Reuters reports:

In contrast to slightly stronger U.S. data, the Ifo German business sentiment index this week showed the biggest monthly fall since September 2001.

Read More: «www.reuters.com»

Yen Falls on Risk Aversion

May 16th, 2008

“The credit crisis is over! No it’s not! Yes it is!”

Such back and forth represents the tenor of the debate currently transpiring in the financial markets. Every day seems to bring new economic data, which is quickly seized upon by both sides as evidence for their respective positions, causing the markets to rise and fall accordingly. In this regard, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc serve as proxies for investor sentiment. When the markets rally, investors are quick to dump both currencies in favor of higher-yielding alternatives. On the other hand, when a large investment bank announces a write-down on its subprime investments, or when economic data indicate falling housing prices, investors are quick to unwind their short positions (carry trades). The advice of the Forex Blog is to take every development in stride and to remember that no definitive conclusions can be reached at this point.

Read More: «www.bloomberg.com»